organisation
The NBER is the leading US economic research network; its working papers circulate before peer review. Working paper no. 34836, “Firm Data on AI”, published in February 2026 and revised in March, by Ivan Yotzov, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and seven co-authors, is based on a survey of nearly 6,000 executives in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and Australia, asked about their use of AI, its effects over the past three years and their expectations for the next three. 69% of firms use AI, more so younger and more productive firms. More than two thirds of executives use it, for 1.5 hours a week on average. Nine in ten report no effect on employment or productivity over the past three years. For the next three, they expect on average 1.4% higher productivity, 0.8% higher output and 0.7% lower employment. The summary published by the NBER in May 2026 adds, for the US sample, that employees expect employment to rise by 0.5% while executives expect it to fall by 1.2%, and productivity gains of 0.9% against 2.3%.
Our perspective
The two sides of the same company expect opposite outcomes, and these two forecasts meet in the works council (CSE) consultation, which is required before any AI tool is deployed. Arriving with an employment figure that employees do not expect starts a conflict; arriving without a figure leaves room for fears. Our advice: before the consultation, write down the expected effect on employment over three years, function by function, and present it as a hypothesis reviewed every year.
Self-reported survey; one co-author declares holding shares in the consulting firm Charles River Associates. The gap in expectations between employees and executives is measured on the US sample, not across all four countries.
Sources
NBER, working paper 34836, February 2026, revised March 2026, DOI 10.3386/w34836: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34836 · NBER Digest, May 2026, “Global Evidence on Business Use of AI”: https://www.nber.org/digest/202605/global-evidence-business-use-ai
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